Advisory

000
WTNT22 KNHC 100236
TCMAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION PALOMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL172008
0300 UTC MON NOV 10 2008
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N  78.0W AT 10/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   3 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N  78.0W AT 10/0300Z
AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.7N  78.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 22.2N  78.1W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 22.7N  78.2W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  25 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 23.0N  78.4W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  25 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 23.0N  78.8W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  25 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.0N  78.0W
 
THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 


000
WTNT42 KNHC 100237
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION PALOMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL172008
1000 PM EST SUN NOV 09 2008
 
PALOMA HAS BEEN DEVOID OF ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION FOR MORE THAN
12 HOURS DUE TO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINING OVER CUBA AND
VERY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY SHEAR DISPLACING DEEP CONVECTION
...ALONG WITH THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS...WELL TO THE
EAST NEAR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY
CONVECTION...DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES CAN NOT BE
GENERATED BY TAFB AND SAB. THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN
DECREASED TO 25 KT FOR DISSIPATING TROPICAL DEPRESSION PALOMA.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/03 KT. THE REMNANTS OF PALOMA ARE
EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...
AND THEN DRIFT BACK TO THE WEST OR EVEN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS
CUBA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND IS A BLEND OF THE SHALLOW BAM AND THE NHC MODEL
CONSENSUS. 
 
THE COMBINATION OF STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...MEANDERING OVER LAND
FOR MORE THAN 24 HOURS...AND DRY STABLE AIR BEING ADVECTED INTO THE
CIRCULATION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM HAS LED TO THE
RAPID DEMISE OF PALOMA. SINCE THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS
FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED...THERE INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF DEEP
CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IF THE SYSTEM
REMAINS OVER THE WARM ATLANTIC WATERS BETWEEN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY SHEAR IN
EXCESS OF 30 KT FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS SHOULD PREVENT ANY
CONVECTION THAT MIGHT DEVELOP FROM BECOMING ORGANIZED AROUND THE
CENTER.
 
THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION
OCCURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      10/0300Z 22.0N  78.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
 12HR VT     10/1200Z 22.2N  78.1W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 24HR VT     11/0000Z 22.7N  78.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     11/1200Z 23.0N  78.4W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     12/0000Z 23.0N  78.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     13/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 


000
WTNT32 KNHC 100237
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION PALOMA ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL172008
1000 PM EST SUN NOV 09 2008
 
...PALOMA DISSIPATING INLAND OVER EAST-CENTRAL CUBA...
...FINAL ADVISORY BEING ISSUED...

AT 1000 PM EST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF WEAKENING TROPICAL DEPRESSION
PALOMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.0 WEST
OR ABOUT 40 MILES... 70 KM...NORTH OF CAMAGUEY CUBA AND ABOUT 180
MILES...285 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.
 
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 3 MPH...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE REMNANTS OF PALOMA SHOULD EMERGE OFF 
THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA MONDAY MORNING.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
 
THE REMNANTS OF PALOMA MAY PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA AND THE
BAHAMAS.

REPEATING THE 1000 PM EST POSITION...22.0 N...78.0 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 3 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.
 
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART